139th KENTUCKY DERBY (3-year-olds)
1-1/4 Miles
predicted Saturday weather: 56 degrees; 50% chance of showers
REVOLUTIONARY (jockey-Calvin Borel / trainer-Todd Pletcher)
When it comes to ticking all the boxes in picking a Derby winner, this son of War Pass has it all – Classy breeding with a mama who ran far and fast, the desire to overcome tough trips and a jockey who knows how to get the Roses .. ..
Never worse than third in his six lifetime starts, and riding a three-race win streak, he has the versatility to be near the lead, or come from far back as he did in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. And, I’ve got a sneaky feeling that the Louisiana races this past winter will prove to be strongest preps along the Derby trail .. .. He has also stood out in the mornings and moved beautifully while outworking CHARMING KITTEN last Saturday!
Is he good enough: YES
Is he brave enough: HECK YEAH!
Will he do it: If he gets a decent post, decent trip we just may be talking TRIPLE CROWN > maybe
ORB (jockey-Joel Rosario / trainer-Claude McGaughey)
YUP – If Shug McGaughey comes to the Derby, then you know he’s got a good one, and he certainly does .. .. Has won his last four-straight including the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes and Grade 1 Florida Derby last time out .. ..
Bred beautifully for the Derby trip (son of Malibu Moon out of an Unbridled mare), the main drawback is his style – He’s a deep closer who will need a fast pace to pick up all the pieces and will have to navigate through 19 rivals to even get close .. ..
Is he good enough: YES
Is he brave enough: unknown
Will he do it: Only if everything falls right for him & REVOLTUTIONARY gets a bad trip
OXBOW (jockey-Gary Stevens / trainer-rainer-D. Wayne Lukas)
Finally back home since last fall, this son of Awesome Again could be the guy to fear .. .. He’ll certainly be laying close to the lead all the way around and has been looking great in the mornings .. .. The coach (Lukas) has been knocking ’em dead so far in 2013!
Is he good enough: YES
Is he brave enough: I think so
Will he do it: Will certainly be in front of the top-two early on and loves Churchill Downs!
2013 KENTUCKY DERBY Graded Handicap
(pp-3) REVOLUTIONARY Has it all-Talent, breeding, heart & jockey for the Roses!
(pp-16) ORB Steady, talented but may not be as fast as the top guy!
(pp-2) OXBOW Versatile, bred to run all day & loving being back home!
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(pp-12) ITSMYLUCKYDAY FL speedster might find 10 furlongs too far; Wants rain!
(pp-14) VERRAZANO 4-for-4; No Derby champ was winless @ 2YO since 1882!
(pp-8) GOLDENCENTS Best of a very average California crop; Has speed though
(pp-9) OVERANALYZE Galloping winner of the Arkansas Derby but time was a ?
(pp-10) PALACE MALICE Son of Curlin ran 2nd in the Blue Grass and adds blinkers
(pp-18) FRAC DADDY 2nd in Arkansas Derby & working well; Moves up in slop!
(pp-19) JAVA’S WAR Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes but dirt form is just ok
(pp-5) NORMANDY INVASION Has the right style, but has been just so-so in the morning
(pp-20) VYJACK Was undefeated until 3rd to VERRAZANO last time out
(pp-11) LINES OF BATTLE Irish-based winner of the UAE Derby has dirt breeding
(pp-4) GOLDEN SOUL Bred to want longer than 10 furlongs but quality is a ??
(pp-17) WILL TAKE CHARGE Beat Oxbow in the Rebel but hasn’t been seen since then
(pp-7) GIANT FINISH Last-minute entrant was 3rd last time out in the Spiral
(pp-1) BLACK ONYX Nice win in the Spiral Stakes but has a stride for the turf
(pp-6) MYLUTE Nice 2nd in Louisiana Derby but still winless in 2013
(pp-15) CHARMING KITTEN Came running in Blue Grass Stakes; Bad works though
(pp-13) FALLING SKY Was tough in Tampa until VERRAZANO showed up